皇冠现金网官网寻求亚洲战略合作伙伴,皇冠现金网官网代理招募中,皇冠现金网官网开放会员注册、充值、提现、电脑版下载、APP下载。

首页社会正文

皇冠最新登陆网址:Aussie property market raises risk of a recession

admin2022-10-049

皇冠最新登陆网址www.hg108.vip)实时更新发布最新最快的皇冠最新登陆代理线路网址、皇冠最新登陆会员线路网址、皇冠最新备用登录网址、皇冠最新手机版登录网址。

AUSTRALIA’S rapid-fire interest-rate increases are sending tremors through the nation’s heavily indebted households and threatening a property downturn on a scale unseen since the eve of the 1991 recession.

The market hardest hit is bellwether Sydney, where home values have dropped almost 5% in the past three months, compared with 2% in the A$9.9 trillion (US$6.8 trillion or RM30.5 trillion) national market. Further falls are inevitable as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which meets again in just under two weeks, raises borrowing costs at the fastest pace in a generation. Home prices are weakening from Stockholm to San Francisco as central banks scramble to contain the hottest inflation in decades. Rate-hike risks are intensified in Australia by a record debt-to-income ratio of 187.2%.

“Australia is quite an exposed market in the world in the sense that household credit and mortgage debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) ranks quite high,” said Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist for S&P Global Ratings. “There’s a lot of debt out there. The higher the debt-to-GDP, the more the rate channel starts to matter.”

The RBA acknowledges it has only a narrow path to push rates high enough to snuff out excess inflation without driving the economy into recession.

The Bank of Korea is grappling with a similar conundrum as it meets today, while the Federal Reserve has signalled flexibility on future rate moves.

,

ETH博彩游戏www.eth108.vip)采用以太坊区块链高度哈希值作为统计数据,ETH博彩游戏数据开源、公平、无任何作弊可能性。

,

Global policy makers have learned the lessons from 1970s episodes by raising rates in early, large increments to keep inflation expectations in check.

The RBA has hiked by a half-percentage point at its past three meetings after a surprise quarter-point move in May to take the cash rate to 1.85%. Under a scenario of a three percentage-point increase in the RBA’s cash rate, nationwide house prices would fall by almost a quarter. Real estate advertiser REA Group Ltd says the national market hasn’t dropped by 10% in a 12-month period since 1990.

While Australian property prices are falling, they remain well above pre-pandemic levels, keeping affordability stretched and suggesting ample scope for additional declines.Bloomberg Economics reckons the RBA is unlikely to lift rates to the peak priced in by money markets of 3.8% by April – more than double the current level – as it would trigger a recession. It sees a terminal rate of 2.75% next year, a little over the central bank’s estimate of neutral and opening up the possibility of a soft landing for the economy. Still, it does see a squeeze ahead for households.

“We estimate rate hikes are likely to reduce households’ borrowing capacity by 20% by 1H23, with reduced capacity to pay set to weigh heavily on house prices over coming months,” says economist James McIntyre.

Auction clearance rates in Australia have fallen as borrowing costs have risen, sliding to about 60% from more than 80% during last year’s boom.

网友评论

1条评论
  • 2022-10-04 00:16:10

    基民就一定能买在股市的低点吗?当然不大可能,如果有这个择时的水平,直接做股票得了,何必要买基金呢?我们最好的“命运”,就是买在相对低点,越是市场下跌,情绪面越悲观的时候,就越应该买基金,可以分批买,不断摊薄成本,也可以采用定投的方式,市场越是下跌,定投的额度可以越高;反之,市场越是大涨,情绪面越是乐观,定投的额度就应该越低,这样才能大概率地保持自己投资基金可以获取超预期的收益。每日必追的文。

热门标签